Will there be a recession in 2026?

resolves Mar 31, 2027

Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if the U.S. enters a recession during 2026 — defined as two or more consecutive quarters of declining real GDP (BEA) with both quarters in 2026, or an NBER-dated recession with a peak month in 2026. Otherwise NO. Judged from official BEA/NBER data available as of the resolution date.

Whether the U.S. slips into recession in 2026 reshapes every big decision — hiring, a home purchase, deploying capital, or sitting in cash. We pulled the hard data the call actually turns on — growth momentum, the labor market beneath the headline, the rate path, and the year's geopolitical shock — weighed it against the strict resolution rule, and committed to a calibrated probability. Built from 257 sources.

solid257 sources

$29

The probability and full reasoning unlock on purchase, and become public for everyone once the event resolves.