Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a comprehensive peace deal or permanent ceasefire in 2026?

Year five, and the diplomacy has never been busier — open letters, summits floated, repeated short truces, a US-brokered prisoner swap. But there's a world of difference between a 32-hour holiday pause and an actual end to the war, and that gap is exactly what this question turns on. So does 2026 finally bring a comprehensive settlement or a permanent ceasefire — or just more temporary pauses over a grinding front? We tracked the state of the talks, the core territorial deadlock, each side's ability to keep fighting, the pressure from Washington and Europe, the war-termination history, and where the forecasters and markets sit — then committed to one calibrated probability. The number on the war the world keeps waiting to end. Built from 151 sources.

The probability and full reasoning unlock on purchase, and become public for everyone once the event resolves.