Will the US and Iran conclude a comprehensive peace agreement in 2026?

A framework to end the war is signed — the guns are quieter and the Strait is reopening. But a framework is a promise to negotiate, not peace itself: a 60-day clock is now running on some of the hardest questions in global diplomacy — uranium enrichment, a stockpile of near-weapons-grade material, sanctions, and tens of billions in frozen funds — with a key regional power loudly unhappy with the whole thing. So do the US and Iran actually conclude a comprehensive, final peace deal before year-end, or does the framework stall short of it? We weighed the negotiating timeline against the historical record, the specific sticking points, the spoiler risk, the domestic politics on both sides, and what the markets are really pricing — then committed to one calibrated probability. The number on the year's highest-stakes diplomatic gamble. Built from 158 sources.

The probability and full reasoning unlock on purchase, and become public for everyone once the event resolves.