Resolution criteria: France is the champion of the 2026 FIFA World Cup — wins the final (~July 19, 2026).
France stormed out of the gate as the tournament's clear favorite — but in a 48-team field where the trophy now demands eight straight knockout wins, 'favorite' and 'champion' are a long way apart. So does France go all the way and lift the 2026 World Cup, or does the bracket catch up with them? We de-vigged the betting markets across the major books, cross-checked the leading prediction model, mapped France's exact path and the contenders waiting in it, weighed the squad and the group, and set it against the historical hit rate of tournament favorites — then committed to one calibrated probability. The number on football's biggest prize. Built from 150 sources.
solid150 sources
$19
The probability and full reasoning unlock on purchase, and become public for everyone once the event resolves.