Will the Republican Party retain control of the US House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms?

Control of Congress comes down to this chamber — and it's a genuine fight: a razor-thin starting margin, the historical weight of the midterm cycle, an aggressive round of mid-decade redistricting redrawing the battlefield, and five months of a volatile economy and a foreign war still to play out. So do Republicans hold the House on November 3rd, or does it flip? We modeled the seat-by-seat margin, the generic-ballot trend, the historical pattern, the redistricting reshuffle, the president's approval, and where the betting markets are pricing it — then committed to one calibrated probability. The number on the single biggest political question of the year. Built from 257 sources.

The probability and full reasoning unlock on purchase, and become public for everyone once the event resolves.