Will 2026 rank among the three warmest years in the global temperature record?

The experts genuinely disagree on this one: some of the world's major climate datasets put 2026 near the very top of the all-time list, while others have it falling just outside — and the verdict turns on a margin of mere hundredths of a degree and the timing of a building El Niño. So does 2026 crack the three warmest years ever recorded, or just miss the cut? We reconciled all five major global temperature datasets, the year-to-date trajectory, the ENSO outlook, and every published expert forecast — then committed to one calibrated probability. The number on a question even the specialists split over. Built from 182 sources.

The probability and full reasoning unlock on purchase, and become public for everyone once the event resolves.