Resolution criteria: 2026 year-end close > 2025 year-end close.
Three straight double-digit years, the richest valuations since the dot-com peak, an active geopolitical shock, and a Fed with no cuts on the table. Does 2026 close above where it opened, or does the long bull market finally break? We weighed the historical odds, the valuation and concentration risk, the path of this year's energy shock, the credit and volatility signals, and the full range of Wall Street's year-end targets — then committed to one calibrated probability. The number behind the year's biggest market question. Built from 317 sources.
solid317 sources
$19
The probability and full reasoning unlock on purchase, and become public for everyone once the event resolves.