Will Bitcoin close above $150,000 on any day in 2026?

Everyone has a Bitcoin price opinion; almost no one has done the work. We weighed the spot tape, the post-halving cycle position, 2026 ETF flows, the macro backdrop, and what the deepest prediction markets actually price — and committed to a calibrated probability for a $150k daily close this year. The number to anchor your thinking on. Built from 159 sources.

The probability and full reasoning unlock on purchase, and become public for everyone once the event resolves.