Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5.0% in any month of 2026?

The job market has held its ground all year — but a sudden break above the 5% line has marked the start of nearly every modern downturn, and 2026 has thrown real shocks at it. So does any month of the year cross that threshold, or does the labor market hold the line? We tracked the monthly trajectory, the leading indicators (claims, layoffs, openings), the recession-trigger gauges, the fallout from this year's energy shock, and where the forecasters and markets actually sit — then committed to one calibrated probability. The number on the year's most-watched recession tripwire. Built from 268 sources.

The probability and full reasoning unlock on purchase, and become public for everyone once the event resolves.