Will US headline CPI inflation be below 3% YoY for the Dec 2026 print?

Headline inflation has snapped back toward multi-year highs after an energy shock — so does it cool back under the line the public fixates on by the all-important December reading, or stay above it? We mapped the exact month-by-month path required to get there, the base effects buried in last year's index, where energy prices are heading, the stickiness underneath, and where the professional forecasters and markets actually sit — then committed to one calibrated probability. The number that anchors the year-end inflation call. Built from 186 sources.

The probability and full reasoning unlock on purchase, and become public for everyone once the event resolves.