Resolution criteria: A foldable iPhone available for purchase in 2026.
Everyone assumes Apple's first foldable is coming — but 'coming' and 'something you can actually buy before the year is out' are very different bars, and the distance between them is where this call is won or lost. We weighed the supply-chain ramp and its reported slips, the announce-to-on-sale timeline against every comparable Apple launch, the credible delay scenarios, and where the prediction markets sit — then committed to one calibrated probability and the single date that settles it. Built from 217 sources.
solid217 sources
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The probability and full reasoning unlock on purchase, and become public for everyone once the event resolves.