Will OpenAI release a model publicly branded 'GPT-6' before 2027-01-01?

Will OpenAI ship a model literally branded 'GPT-6' before 2027? There's more nuance here than the headlines — or the prediction markets — suggest. We mapped OpenAI's release cadence, its latest flagship, the leadership signals, and exactly what the markets are pricing, and committed to a calibrated probability for a literal 'GPT-6' this year. The number to anchor on. Built from 158 sources.

The probability and full reasoning unlock on purchase, and become public for everyone once the event resolves.